Transactions in South Africa occur predominantly in the 3.5x – 7.0x bracket. In the remainder of Africa, an ever-increasing majority of transactions occur at a multiple exceeding 7.0x. Between 2012 and 2021, African multiples exceeded the South African multiple by 32% on average.
Our listed EV/EBITDA data shows a similar trend, with higher prices for securities outside South Africa being observed.
Growth expectations outside South Africa’s borders could explain the higher multiples paid for the Africa ex SA trend. According to Fitch data, for Africa ex SA, real GDP is expected to grow on average at 1.39% higher per annum than South Africa between 2022 and 2030. Similarly, during 2020, the real GDP downturn in Africa ex SA, was 2.54% lower versus South Africa.