Investment activity over time

Transaction activity serves as a proxy for the availability of investable opportunities across African markets. While fundraising reflects the supply of capital, transaction volumes show the pace of deployment and investor willingness to execute deals under prevailing market conditions.

Total private capital transaction activity declined materially in 2023 and remained subdued into 2024, reflecting tighter financial conditions and continued macroeconomic uncertainty. By 2025, a modest recovery suggests a gradual return of investor confidence as capital markets stabilised. Despite the downturn, deal activity remained highly concentrated across a handful of core African markets.

Geographic focus

South Africa maintained a steady share of African transaction activity over the five-year period from June 2021 to June 2025, averaging approximately 22% of all deals annually, according to data compiled by RisCura. Although deal volumes fell sharply in 2023 and remained weak in 2024, South Africa’s relative contribution held firm. The recovery in 2025 shows the enduring appeal of South Africa’s mature investment landscape, supported by deep pools of local capital, a well-developed advisory network and a robust institutional framework. SAVCA data shows that deal volumes by South African GPs rose significantly in 2024, supported by a rebound in mid-market firms’ activity. 

Egypt remained a leading market in North Africa, consistently accounting for some of the largest shares of transactions across the continent. Despite a decline in activity in 2023 and 2024, Egypt’s contribution remained significant throughout the period. The country continues to benefit from structural reforms, a large and diversified economic base and improving policy credibility. Investor interest in Egypt has been sustained by favourable long-term fundamentals and a growing pipeline of investable mid-cap opportunities. 

Nigeria remained one of the most active private capital markets in Africa, with its share of deal activity peaking in 2022 before moderating in subsequent years. Elevated inflation, currency devaluation, and capital controls dampened investor appetite in 2024 and 2025. However, the country’s share of total transactions remained relatively resilient. Investment activity in Nigeria, according to RisCura’s dataset, has been approximately 21% of total deal activity over the 5-year period ending in June 2025, underscoring its continued relevance despite a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop. 

The East African region consistently contributed to total deal activity over the period, averaging just under 20% of annual transactions. Kenya continued to dominate the region, supported by a steady flow of transactions in fintech, agribusiness and consumer-facing sectors. While East Africa was not immune to the broader slowdown, investor engagement proved relatively stable. Structural tailwinds, including diversified economies and improving access to local funding markets, continue to support investor interest, particularly among development finance-backed funds and impact investors. 

North Africa excluding Egypt, including markets such as Morocco, accounted for a more modest share of African deal activity. Transaction volumes declined in 2023 and 2024, reflecting sensitivity to external demand, commodity price shocks and slower recoveries in key sectors such as tourism. While a slight recovery was observed in 2025, overall momentum remained muted, with investors taking a more selective approach focused on high-conviction opportunities in resilient sectors. 

Transaction activity in Southern Africa ex-South Africa and West Africa ex-Nigeria remained limited over the period, accounting for a smaller share of total deal flow. These regions experienced a sharper contraction in activity in 2023, with only a marginal improvement in 2025. Investment activity in these markets remained sporadic and heavily dependent on specific deal characteristics, with investors prioritising opportunities offering clear governance, visibility, and scalability within smaller ecosystems. 

Overall, the regional distribution of transactions highlights the ongoing concentration of private capital activity in Africa’s largest and most developed markets. While 2023 and 2024 marked a cyclical downturn in volumes, the continued relative strength of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya reinforces their structural role in anchoring African private capital. The partial rebound observed in 2025 points to a gradual normalisation of activity, driven by a more cautious but deliberate return to deployment across key markets. 

Sector focus

Investment activity, measured by the number of transactions, remained relatively resilient in 2022 and 2023, before contracting moderately in 2024 and partially recovering in 2025. The decline in overall deal volumes reflects the challenging macroeconomic environment, characterised by higher interest rates and increased execution risk, which collectively constrained deal-making across most sectors. Transaction activity in the consumer discretionary sector declined modestly over the period. The sector accounted for approximately 13% of total transactions in 2022 and 2023, easing to around 9% in 2024 and 2025. This trend suggests a more selective approach to discretionary consumer exposure, as investors reassessed earnings sensitivity and demand risk amid heightened economic uncertainty. 

The consumer staples sector grew significantly, expanding from 3% of deal activity in 2022 to 11% in 2025. This suggests a shift in investor focus on essential goods and non-cyclical consumption, driven by Africa’s growing population and the perceived resilience of staples during economic uncertainty. 

The information technology sector remained the largest contributor to deal activity throughout the period. It represented approximately 25% of transactions in 2022 and 2023, peaking at 33% in 2024 before declining to 24% in 2025. Investor appetite for digital and tech-enabled platforms remains robust, particularly in financial infrastructure, enterprise services, and digital commerce solutions. Financials maintained a dominant presence throughout the period, although its share of transactions gradually declined from 22% in 2022 to 17% in 2025. The sector remains a stronghold for private capital deployment, particularly in fintech, digital banking, and microfinance platforms. 

Across sectors, the data demonstrates a shift toward essential services and established business models. Information technology, financials, and industrials remained central to transaction activity, while consumer staples experienced notable growth. Investor interest in cyclical and emerging sectors, such as discretionary retail, declined in response to changing macroeconomic conditions and capital constraints. Trends from 2022 to 2025 indicate a recalibration of investment priorities, with a focus on resilience, scalability, and long-term relevance within the evolving African market context. 

The pattern of investment activity points to a market that is active but increasingly selective. Capital continues to concentrate in established ecosystems, resilient sectors and businesses with credible paths to scale. However, deployment is only one part of the investment cycle. The ability to realise value through timely and appropriate exits remains central to both investor returns and the market’s capacity to raise and redeploy capital.