Liquidity

 

Like many emerging and frontier markets, the liquidity of Africa’s exchanges took a significant knock in 2019. On aggregate, the average daily turnover dropped by 30% from 2018 to 2019. The decline is primarily due to the emerging market contagion in the second half of 2018, which led to an overall withdrawal of capital by investors from emerging and frontier markets.

Apart from the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (MUSE), which experienced a 57% increase in daily turnover, all other exchanges experienced a decline in daily turnover when compared to 2018. The improvement in the MUSE daily turnover is partially due to an increased size of the real estate sector. According to the IMF, there were significant foreign direct investments into the offshore and real estate sectors. The drying up of liquidity in other African countries is mainly due to a global risk-off environment. Turkey’s currency and debt crisis in the second half of 2018 contributed to the risk-off environment as it led to the emerging market contagion. The Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchange (CASE) and the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LUSE) had more substantial decreases in liquidity at 43% and 94%, respectively. The LUSE was affected by credit downgrades by Fitch and Moody’s during the second half of 2018 and contradictory monetary policy through an increase in interest rates during May 2019. The CASE saw a relatively less substantial decrease due to the higher liquidity compared to other Africa markets (ex SA). The challenging macro environment deterred state-owned companies in Egypt from listing in the exchange; these IPO’s were expected to improve liquidity in the exchange.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) remains Africa’s largest and most liquid stock exchange with USD 1 431m traded daily. The second-largest and most liquid exchange with a daily turnover of USD 44m is the CASE. The fact that South Africa and Egypt have the highest and second-highest daily turnover does not come as a surprise given that these are the only two emerging markets as classified by MSCI. Of the comparable emerging markets, Bolsa de Valcres de Sao Paulo (BOVESPA) has an average daily turnover, equivalent to South Africa at USD 1 856m, while the Bolsa Mexicana de Valcres (BVM) and Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) have a daily turnover of USD 326m and USD 212m, respectively. The next most liquid exchange, by turnover for 2019, is the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CBSE) followed by the MUSE, at USD 19m and USD 15m, respectively, but this still represents less than 1% of the daily trade on the JSE. Interestingly, the MUSE has overtaken the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGSE) as the third biggest stock exchange by turnover. Of the comparable frontier markets, only the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has a high daily turnover at USD 66m.

The financial sector has, on average, the highest daily turnover value across the African exchanges (ex. JSE) and continues to account for most of the market capitalisation. The real estate sector has the next highest daily turnover. Of the capital held within the financial sector, 59% of this is concentrated across the CBSE, CASE and MUSE exchanges at, 30%, 18%, and 11%, respectively. While the real estate sector is 96% concentrated across the MUSE and CASE at 53% and 43%, respectively.