African exports by product
The decline in global commodity (and particularly oil) prices has caused the total value of Africa’s exports to decline from 2014 to 2017, in USD terms. This has a direct impact on government revenues and foreign currency reserves.
The regions whose exports rely most heavily on extractive industries include Nigeria, Southern Africa (excl. SA), Central Africa and the Maghreb region. As a result, these regions have seen the largest decline in total export value over the 2014-2017 period.
The more diverse, or complex, a region’s GDP output and exports, the more resilient the region will be to adverse shocks to individual industries
The concentration to extractive industries has improved substantially in the Maghreb and Egypt & Sudan due to growth in other areas of the economy partially offsetting the decline in extractive exports. In the Maghreb region, exports in animals and animal products increased by about USD 500m (32%) and exports of transportation goods increased by USD 1.8bn. This, compared to the decline in extractive exports of about USD 60bn, seems rather minor, which limits the improvement in the concentration factor.
While Nigeria, the Maghreb region and Southern Africa ex-SA had larger exports than South Africa in 2014, the result of the downward turn in the commodity cycle has brought their export value in line with and below South Africa in 2017. South Africa boasts a more diverse export basket, highlighting another structural difference between South Africa and the remainder of the continent.